Choices before Nigeria

Simon Kolawole

If you believe in predictions with the whole of your heart, today could mark the Nigeria's last Independence Anniversary. The United States, according to a widely held belief, has predicted that Nigeria would break up in 2015. In fact, many Nigerians authoritatively say it was the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that made the prediction.
And, in any case, there is no better time to break up Nigeria ─ as the purveyors of this idea would argue. With the 2015 general election expected to be hotly contested between a Southerner, President Goodluck Jonathan, and a Northerner, some Nigerians and outsiders expect nothing but a bloody poll that will eventually lead to the balkanisation of Nigeria.

If you don't believe in predictions, you need not worry then. At no time did the United States or its agencies predict that Nigeria was going to break up in 2015. It is part of the old wives' fables that have gained prominence in the nation's rich collection of myths. It is true that the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) published a conference report in March 2005 on the future of Nigeria.

The conference featured top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa who were asked to discuss likely trends in the region over the next 15 years, that is, 2005-2020. One of the experts painted the scenario of a coup by junior officers in Nigeria which "could destabilise the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner".

The report painted a scenario of how West Africa could be destabilised if what happened in Liberia in the 1990s were to be experienced in Nigeria.

"If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilising entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilised. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years if ever and not without massive international assistance," it said.

By the time the report was handled by the Nigerian media, it was no longer scenario-painting: it had transformed to prophecy. "If" generously used in the report had transformed to "when". It got worse by the time Nigerians read it and started rewriting it in their own "revised standard version".

Till today, many Nigerians have never stopped saying the CIA predicted that Nigeria was going to break up by 2015. The little detail about the difference between "break up" and "failed state" in political terminologies is not something to be worried about; the CIA had predicted that Nigeria was going to break up and everything was pointing in that direction as far as they are concerned.

But maybe Nigerians do not really need any CIA prediction or prophecy to know that the year 2015 is going to be one of the most delicate in the nation's history. President Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is apparently seeking to be re-elected into office, and as incumbency goes, the advantage is expected to be with him. But, for the first time in Nigeria's history, the biggest opposition parties are now in a matrimony called the All Progressives Congress (APC).

To defeat Jonathan, there is every indication that it will field a Northerner as candidate. Inevitably, the presidential contest will come across as North vs South. The last time this happened, hundreds of people were killed after the election. That was in 2011 ─ the election that brought Jonathan to power.

Those who expected an all-out war next year are, therefore, not out of their minds. They are not moved by the fact that since 2011, all elections have been peaceful with no single bullet fired or house burnt down. Anambra, Edo, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun have all held governorship elections that did not draw blood ─ some will argue, though, that those polls were heavily militarised and therefore not a good gauge of how far we have progressed in democratic practice.

The 2015 elections will be more tensed, and the area of coverage will be so wide that the security forces will be stretched beyond normal. Peace and security will be endangered, some will say, and the "CIA prediction" may just come true.

But haven't we been there before? In 2003, when former President Olusegun Obasanjo was seeking re-election, the North vs South tensions were high. He was said to have signed a pact not to seek re-election. He was said to have agreed to return power to the North.
This brought out the best in doomsday specialists, who said the country was about to be thrown into a turmoil and the end of our democracy might just be closer than we thought. They did not need any CIA to predict anything: the evidence was too damning and downright convincing: any year that ends with "3", they said, always spells doom for our democracy.

In 1963, the crisis that started in the Western Region eventually terminated the First Republic. In 1983, the crisis that followed the re-election of former President Shehu Shagari terminated the Second Republic. In 1993, the annulment of June 12 terminated the Third Republic.

Therefore, using the "Almighty Formula" in O'Level Maths, the doomsday specialists were very convinced that 2003 was going to terminate the Fourth Republic. There must be something about "3".

After all, it was going to be the first civilian-to-civilian transition in a democracy, and since Nigeria had never managed to pull it through in the past, the end would surely come again. For once, though, the formula failed. The elections came and went, and our democracy survived.

Maybe this would not be Nigeria's last Independence Anniversary then. Maybe the political class would practise what they preach by putting Nigeria first, by subjugating personal desires to the national interest, by playing fair and square and by accepting the verdict of the people.

But it could well be Nigeria's final anniversary ─ the 54th and the last ─ if the politicians choose to be desperate, care less about the future of the country and think less about the common good. The choice is theirs. Wherever they lead, Nigerians will follow.

*Kolawole is former Editor of THISDAY

Culled from: http://www.thisdaylive.com